By Essan-Ekoninyam in Yaounde
With growing speculation that President Paul Biya will name
a new government anytime soon, a maelstrom of anxiety gushed into Cameroon’s
political arena. At stake is the post of prime minister, which naturally should
be handed to an Anglophone, after the presidencies of the Senate, National
Assembly, Supreme Court, Constitutional Council, Economic and Social Council
have all gone to Francophones.
According
to Cameroon’s unwritten geo-political power-sharing arrangement, the posts of President
of the Republic, President of the National Assembly and Prime Minister are
shared among the Grand North, the Grand south and the Anglophones.
With
the advent of the Senate, President Paul Biya decided to draw in the Grand West
into the power-sharing arrangement, when he made Niat Njifendi Marcel the
senate president. The Grand Littoral has also for decades now kept the post of
Supreme Court President (Alexis Dipanda Mouelle and now Mokube Sone).
So,
with the Presidency of the Republic (Paul Biya from the Grand South), Speaker
of National Assembly (Cavaye Yeguie from Grand North) and President of the
Senate (Niat Njifendi from the West) already occupied by Francophones, the only
post now open to the Anglophones is that of Prime Minister. Anglophones have
kept the PM post since 1992 when Achidi Achu replaced Sadou Hayatou from the
North.
With
Anglophones still hoping to keep the PM post after the awaited post-election
cabinet reshuffle, the trouble among CPDM bigwigs of the two Anglophone regions
is who should take the baton from the sitting PM, Philemon Yang.
In
2013, after the joint legislative and council elections of 30 September that
year, the North West laid claim to the coveted post, arguing that the CPDM had
made enormous gains in the region after grabbing all ten senators and claiming
seven out of the 20 MPs and 19 out of the 35 councils.
For
their part, the South West region in 2013 also claimed to be the more deserving
of the post, arguing that she harvested more gains for the CPDM in the joint
legislative/council elections, as well as the senatorial election. In the SW,
CPDM had a crushing majority in the legislative and council elections, sweeping
all but one of the 15 parliamentary seats (all except Kumba) and all but four
of the 32 councils (all except Kumba I, II, III and Tiko).
Today,
however, the context has changed markedly, and these arguments by the NW and SW
no longer hold water. Firstly, the very low voter participation in both regions
during the 7 October 2018 presidential election (5%) and the paltry
contribution of both regions to Biya’s eventual victory (1% for NW and 3% for
SW) makes it such that neither of the NW nor the SW can beckon Paul Biya with
confidence.
Secondly,
the raging Anglophone crisis which has transformed over time into a full-blown
armed conflict, has exposed Biya’s CPDM allies in the two restive regions as
unrepresentative of their people at best, and totally rejected at worse. This
therefore pushes one to ask the question whether Paul Biya will continue to
recycle his old allies of the NW and SW or whether he will look for new and
more popular and acceptable ones who can penetrate the masses and put across
his proposed solutions to the ongoing conflict.
Be it
as it may, the fact remains that you can never predict President Biya in
matters of appointments. And nobody can say with exactitude what criteria the
President uses to pick persons for some of the most sensitive and strategic
positions in the country.
Recall
that sequel to the senate election in 2013 the press went awash with
speculation that Mafany Musonge would be made the president of the upper house
of parliament. But it emerged that President Biya landed his choice on Niat
Njifendji, even though the latter’s name had hardly featured as a potential
occupant of the post.
That
notwithstanding and as has been the case after all presidential elections, the
press has again gone to work advancing the names of potential postulants for
the PM post and with some news outlets even publishing lists of what they call
‘leaked governments’.
Recently,
French Language weekly, Sans Detour, in a front page caption –“Remaniement
Ministerial: Confidence Sur Le Futur Probable PM,” profiled three candidates;
two Anglophones and one Francophone, as potential future occupants of the Star
Building Top seat. The newspaper said that Chungong Ayafor (Cameroon Ambassador
to the DR Congo), Elung Paul Che (ASG of the presidency) and Sonara GM, Ibrahim
Talba Malla were the frontline contenders for the post.
Another
French Language Daily, Le Messager, last week added more names to the list of
Anglophone contenders for Philemon Yang’s job. It said apart from Chungong
Ayafor and Elung Paul, there were other qualified persons for the job including
Victor Mengot (Minister in charge of Special Duties at the Presidency), Ngolle
Ngolle Elvis (former Forestry Minister and current Director of the CPDM party
Academy), Tasong Paul (former CEMAC Commissioner and Current Minister Delegate
at the MINEPAT) and Atanga Nji Paul (the former Special Duties Minister at the
Presidency who now doubles as Permanent Secretary of the National Security
Council and as Minister of Territorial Administration.)
Other
names that also feature as potential PMs during discussions about the awaited
new government are Joseph Dion Ngute (former long-serving MINDEL at the MINREX
who is now Minister in charge of duties at the presidency), Shey Jones Yembe
(former secretary of state at the MINEPAT who now serves as Board Chair of the
Douala Ports Authority and who very recently replaced Paul Tasong at the Cemac
Commission) and Martin Mbeng (the Cameroon Ambassador to Brazil).
Several
other newspapers including l’Oeil du Sahel, Mutations, Epervier etc have all
made lead stories of Biya’s awaited government. They have also made predictions
and projections about the orientation(s) and arguments that may guide the
Etoudi Palace Prince in choosing persons for the different positions.
The
citizen journalists of the social media have also been having a field day as far
as projections for Biya’s new government is concerned. In one of the
governments published on social media, Atanga Nji was made the PM. In another
that went even more viral than the first, the GM of CSPH, Okie Johnson Ndoh
emerged as the occupant of the PM post.
Observably,
in all the predictions and speculations, Philemon Yang was not retained as PM,
and the South West had more candidates than the North West, even though no
explanation(s) was given for this.
But the
speculations or not, one fact remains clear and it is this that President Biya,
fondly called ‘the Sphinx’, is increasingly difficult to be predicted
especially in matters of appointments. Cases are legion where the president was
said to have invited persons and assured them that he would hand them a
particular position, then the next day or days later, a different name is
announced on radio as appointed by the President.
Then if
what we hear is true; that some postulants for Philemon Yang’s job have been
multiplying visits to soothsayers and marabouts. We are told that some have
even invited witch doctors from faraway countries to come and boost their
chances, while others are employing witchcraft and other esoteric practices
just in a bid to turn President Biya’s attention towards them.
NB: We will bring you a profile of the various candidates in
our next issue
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