Power Succession in Parliament:

An Anglophone To Succeed Cavaye Yeguie As Northerners Clamour for PM Post?

-Press reports last week highlighted alleged manoeuvres by some Anglophone MPs who are said to have ganged up with Northern elite in a plot to oust Cavaye Yegiue from his Glass Palace top seat and replace him with an Anglophone. But analysts say if this happens, it would mean the departure of Dion Ngute from the Star Building. Anglophone political elite have not been indifferent to the development, which has sparked a vast amount of debate and speculation along the corridors of power in the capital city Yaounde. 

Story by Ayukogem Steven Ojong in Yaounde

National Assembly Speaker Cavaye Yegiue

As the National Assembly opened its doors on Tuesday for its first session as of right of the 10th legislature that is, following the legislative elections on 9 February 2020, a gush of speculation immediately swept into the political arena in Yaounde.

                The ongoing speculation is informed perhaps by the fact that the first session as of right of the National Assembly is always dedicated for just two main things viz the validation of the mandates of newly elected MPs, and the putting in place of a new bureau to run the affairs of the NA for the next legislative year.

                Given that the incumbent Speaker of the National Assembly, 80-year-old Cavaye Yeguie Djibril, has occupied the post of Speaker for 28 years (since 1992) that is, after he first entered parliament 50 years ago (Cavaye first entered parliament in 1970 and was one of the questors in 1972), political bookmakers went to work, predicting that the time is ripe for a shake-up in the power arrangement in the glass house, with the possible ouster of the Methuselah of the Assembly, Hon. Cavaye Yeguie Djibril, from his coveted seat as House Speaker.

                The speculations in political circles here did not miss the attention of newsrooms in Yaounde, as several local tabloids picked up the subject and immediately sent out their prying reporters on the beat.

                In one of its banner headlines last week, L’Oeil du Sahel, the tabloid that specializes only on issues concerning or affecting the Grand North, reported that political elite of this part of the country have renewed their long time clamour for the Post of PM.

                The paper, edited by Gibai Gatama, reported that the political elite of the Grand North are pressing harder than ever before, for president Biya to hand the PM job to a son of the Grand North, if just to compensate them for the victories that this part of the country has been assuring for the Etoudi palace tenant, in successive multiparty elections, since the advent of pluri-party democracy in Cameroon in the early 1990s.

                L’Oeil du Sahel informed that elite of the Grand North argue that with their over three million registered voters, they have always been the game changer for Biya and the CPDM, in all elections since 1992, and especially at this time when the political tides appear to be turning against the 87-year-old versatile technocrat from Mvomeka, in his erstwhile strongholds in the South.

                Gibai Gatama’s paper notes for instance that in the last presidential election where president Biya harvested slightly over 78% of the total votes cast, the Grand North alone contributed 48%, with the rest of the country contributing just about 30% of the votes.

                The paper notes that in the 9 February twin municipal/legislative election, the Grand North did it again for Biya and the CPDM, winning many councils and parliamentary seats in all three regions of the Grand North.

                As if these are not enough, the ‘voice of the North’’ argues that it was their brother, Ahmadou Ahidjo, who handed the presidency to Biya, and that as they continue to wait patiently for Biya to reciprocate Ahidjo’s good gesture, it behooves the Etoudi Palace Prince to keep the people of the Grand North comfortable, in the meantime, by handing to them at least the PM’s Office, which they reckon as imbued with exorbitant executive powers which they can use to make things happen for their people.

                ‘Nordistes’ argue that the post of Speaker of the National Assembly that Cavaye Yegiue has been keeping for 28 years, does not impact the people of the Northern regions in any way; if anything it only benefits its occupant, Cavaye, and perhaps his family members.

                Northerners say they have endured the ‘ingratitude’ from the CPDM regime for too long and they think it is time for a change, LOeil du Sahel reported further, noting that the patience of the North has been in spite of the crushing poverty that is the daily lot of the huge population of the Grand North.

                It is with these and many other arguments that the Grand North elites are lobbying and mounting untold pressure on President Biya to grant them the Star Building top job, L’Oeil du Sahel affirmed, noting that the lobby this time is so strong and so well-calculated that it may take a miracle for Biya to stay adamant to the request.

Enter Anglophone MPs

                Following the L’Oeil du Sahel teaser, other newspapers joined in the fray. L’Evenement, La Nouvelle Expression and The Gaurdian Post last week also picked up the story, reporting that in their clamour for the post of PM, political elite of the Grand North thought it expedient to co-opt some Anglophone MPs to join in their fight to get Cavaye kicked out of his long-held seat as House Speaker and to make way for an Anglophone to take over the seat so that they (the Northerners) can now lay claim for the PM job.

                The calculation of the Northerners is that in the event of an Anglophone becoming the Speaker of the National Assembly it would be difficult, nay, impossible, for Biya to maintain another Anglophone as PM, the newspapers reported.

                If this happens as planned, then the incumbent PM, Chief Dr. Joseph Dion Ngute, would simply become the biggest casualty in the ongoing battles for power succession and positioning at the sovereign institutions in the country notably the National Assemby, the Senate and the PM’s Office. Needless to say here that a cabinet reshuffle is expected anytime soon, after the bureau of the Senate and National assembly are constituted.

                In its lead story on Wednesday last week, The Gaurdian Post holds that some top Anglophone MPs have since ganged up with Northern elite, and they have been multiplying nocturnal meetings and fine-tuning strategies and contacting just any person(s) they believe can intercede for them and get President Biya to grant their rather indecent requests.

                Even though The Gaurdian Post did not mention any names in their story, The Median got it on good authority that a powerful Anglophone woman in the out-going bureau of National Assembly was individually cornered by the Northern lobby and she is now working in concert and independently to shore up her chances in Biya’s calculations.

                We learned that the Anglophone postulant for the House Speaker job has been so invigorated by the strong lobby by her Northern partners to the extent that she now cares less whatever consequences could be in wait for her, in the event of their quest for the Glass Palace top job and thus the PM’s Office failing to prosper.

Will Cavaye Survive the Storm?

              

Senate President Marcel Niat

  But one point must however be made here, and it is this that, as the lobby gathers momentum for Cavaye to be replaced by an Anglophone, and for Dion Ngute to be substituted by a Northerner, the lobbyists should not be oblivious that whatever will be the final outcome would depend solely on the thinking of President Paul Biya; his political calculations and choices.

                Yet, if our usually reliable sources at the Presidency are anything to go by, then the lobby by the Northerners, and manoeuvres by Anglophone MPs may just be an effort in futility.

                This is because, President Biya, in the exercise of his prerogatives as head of state, always puts the republic before anything else. Giving the stakes in the country at this time, the president’s calculations and his choices, can only be informed by the most important considerations of the land including notably the worrisome Anglophone question, and of course, the eventual succession at the helm of the state.

                And if the above are anything to go by, then one should not expect Biya to make any serious changes at both the National Assembly and the Senate at this time, argued our Unity Palace sources, who noted further that, it is not in President Biya’s nature to reveal his plans for the future, too early; he waits until the time is right. So Biya may hardly reveal his succession plans at this time.

                However, should the president decide to take seriously the request of the Northerners, he may decide to give instead the Senate Presidency to the North, while replacing Cavaye with somebody from the West, our sources said.

                And though one cannot immediately point at any MP from the West to replace Cavaye as Assembly Speaker, the Lamido of Rey Bouba,  Aboubakary Abdoulaye, could possibly become the next Senate President that is, if Biya decides to off-load his old-time friend and trusted ally, Marcel Niat Njifendi, to give him time to rest and to concentrate on his health concerns. 

                As for the PM, Dr. Dion Ngute, our sources argued that the current stakes in the country are not as to warrant the President to think of replacing him at this time, except maybe the President decides to create the post of Vice President of the Republic and appoint him there.

                “PM Dion Ngute has been so impressive in his first one year at the Star Building for anyone to think that he should be replaced now,” opined our Unity Palace source, who reckoned that only a ‘force majeure’ can cause the sitting PM to be replaced at this time.

                “Why would the President replace a collaborator who is working so well and is delivering the expected results? What has the PM done wrong as to warrant his replacement at this time? Will taking away the PM’s Office from the Anglophones and giving them the National Assembly help in dousing the frustrations in Buea and Bamenda?

 Have Anglophones ever asked for the post of Assembly Speaker in preference to the PM’s Office?” These are only some of the questions that our sources asked us when we got them to ruminate on the lobby by Northerners to take over the Star Building.

                Be it as it may, and in as much as Northerners are bent on having the PM job, and despite the self-seeking and self-serving manoeuvres by some Anglophone MPs to become Speaker of the National Assembly, one point should be borne in mind, and it is this that, President Biya alone decides who gets what, when, how and why.

                In the exercise of his absolute constitutional powers as head of state, the President does not yield to undue pressures of any sort or from anywhere. Any person(s) or groups of persons that try to put pressure on him, only do so at times, at the risk of losing what they already have.