What's happening in DR Congo is scary. It's
also a chance to do the right thing.
The Democratic Republic of Congo erupted in
protest in recent weeks after its president, Joseph Kabila, refused to rule out
seeking an unconstitutional third term in office. Security forces cracked down
on the protesters, and 40 people died in the ensuing violence.
Kabila,
the DRC’s leader for the past 15 years, is the latest in a long line of African
leaders to decide he has to stay in office because he’s indispensable. Just
last month, in a disputed vote, YoweriMuseveni extended his 30-year rule in
Uganda under similar pretenses, and Burundi is on the brink of chaos with the
decision of President Pierre Nkurunziza to seek an unconstitutional third term.
Indeed, nine African countries have a leader who has been in power for more
than 20 years.
There
are plenty of reasons for the U.S. to be deeply concerned about maintaining
stability in the center of Africa. A country as big as Western Europe, with a
youthful population and vast natural resource wealth, the DRC holds a strategic
position in Africa and the world. An unstable Congo threatens other African
countries. But beyond that, if the U.S. could help secure a smooth transfer of
power from Kabila to a democratically elected successor, Congo could become not
just a crisis averted but a shining example. A peaceful transition there could
help Africa break the pattern of “leaders for life” who constrain not only
civil and political liberties but also economic growth, preferring to reward
friends and family with business franchises. The benefits of that would
reverberate across the globe.
Kabila’s
behavior — including the sentences of six activists to two years in prison for
calling for a general strike — has caused not just national but global protest.
On April 25 at the United Nations, Secretary of State John Kerry told Kabila
that “timely and credible elections” in the DRC were essential to the country’s
future. Just a few days before that, on April 15, Sen. John McCain wrote to the
DRC’s ambassador to the United States to express his “deep concern at the
increasingly repressive political climate and erosion in the human rights
situation.”
But
rather than taking the latest criticism to heart, Kabila lashed out. His
Cabinet ministers bought a full-page ad in the New York Times on April 23 to
tell the world to back off, claiming that Kabila had “placed the DRC on the
orbit of stability.” There is no one among the opposition better suited for the
job, said the ad, claiming Kabila’s opponents are “divided, without landmark,
without a leader, without a program.” So there’s no need to respect the
constitutional limit on presidential terms.
The
ad used language reminiscent of the era of Joseph Mobutu, who ruled DRC for
over 30 years when it was called Zaire. He dubbed himself Mobutu
SeseSekoNkukuwazaBanga, which is translated as “the all-conquering warrior, who
goes from triumph to triumph.” Kabila’s ministers, in turn, predicted that on
his economic accomplishments alone, “History will keep of Kabila the image as a
great reformer.” He has a way to go. The World Bank ranked the DRC 176th out of
187 countries on its Human Development Index in 2015.
Kabila’s
response to McCain’s letter was also disturbing. Lambert MendeOmalanga, the
president’s spokesman, said McCain should stop using his “celebrity and
leadership for the sake of some extremists’ projects, probably on the basis of
biased information.” Omalanga concluded that the U.S. “come specifically to the
bedside of our electoral process with the expected funding instead of confining
itself to anathemas and threats of a bygone era.”
U.S.
policymakers are right to worry that Kabila is about to crack down hard on
opponents and extend his presidency through force for as long as he sees fit,
no matter the effect on stability in the center of Africa. And that stability
is critical to U.S. efforts to fight terrorism. Al Qaeda, ISIS and their
affiliates are forcefully moving to establish a foothold in sub-Saharan Africa,
planning to use its mineral wealth to fund terrorism. If Kabila’s refusal to
relinquish power destabilizes the DRC, it could create a vacuum for terrorist
groups to fill, just as happened in Syria and Libya.
The
danger is increasing. Two months ago, when people throughout the country staged
a national sick-day of sorts in support of democracy, Kabila seemed to look the
other way. But on April 24, a large rally billed as “the day of commemoration
of the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Congo” was dispersed
forcefully. Now, as thousands flock to support democracy, the president’s
security forces are dispersing citizens with tear gas, blockades, arrests and
threats.
There
were no reports of provocation from the crowd on April 24. It was simply a
march that included prominent opposition leaders, including MoiseKatumbi, the
governor of Katanga province, who has emerged as a popular possible contender
to succeed Kabila. Last week, security forces defaced and removed posters
bearing Katumbi’s image and then used force against protesting crowds. The
response showed that Kabila knows he is not indispensable and wants to prevent
an alternative leader from emerging.
Kabila’s
actions are putting in jeopardy the minimal progress the DRC has made in reform
of his nation’s governance since he succeeded his father, who was assassinated
in 2001. After being reelected in 2006, Kabila supported the adoption of a new
constitution, but over the past five years he’s used force and intimidation to
squash political opponents, and now he’s making it all but impossible to hold
elections as the constitution requires.
Two
months ago, top State Department officials warned Congress that a grave
humanitarian crisis could erupt if Kabila succeeds in preventing a free
election. Since then Kabila has made his intransigence clear.
What
can the U.S. do? Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the
Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Africa, wrote to Kerry in February,
outlining the right approach for the U.S. government: First, demand that Kabila
state affirmatively that he will not seek a third term and will insure the
political space for candidates to campaign for the presidency; second, provide
the necessary guidance and funding for a free and fair election this year.
Third, if Kabila fails to make the commitment to step down, move ahead with
denials of visas and asset freezes, coordinated with other governments and
targeted at the president, his family and political associates. The U.S. should
also reduce security and economic aid flowing through the DRC government and
discourage foreign investment.
If
President Barack Obama takes these steps now and Kabila bows out, the signal to
other aspiring presidents-for-life will be clear. The U.S. will act on its
belief that democracy is essential on the continent, not just for the human
rights and economic well-being of Africans but also for the national security
of Americans.
James K. Glassman, former undersecretary for state for
Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, is a member of the advisory board of
United for Africa’s Democratic Future.
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