Tuesday, 15 August 2017

The world moving to the second phase of cold war acrimony




The cold war was a conflict between the communist East led by Russia and the capitalist West led by the USA. It was pursued by means of power polities, economic pressure, Spying, propaganda, careful deployment of forces, surprise attacks and improvised counter-attacks. It was pursued through all means but for the declaration of war. Andre Fontaine, in his book titled “History of the cold war” makes it clear that the cold war remains the greatest war of all times. It should be noted that the basic cause of the cold war could be found in the difference of principles between the communist states and the capitalist states which had existed ever since the communist had set up a government in Russia in 1917. When the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia they began preaching of a World Revolution. The idea of a world revolution provoked fear and hostility especially in the West. Also the then Soviet leaders had assumed that the capitalist states in the World were out to destroy the only socialist states in the world. This soviet assumption dates back to 1918-1920 during the Russian civil war when the capitalist states intervened on the side of the enemies of the Bolshevik government. The events of 1918-1920 created a hostile feeling in the minds of soviet leaders.
                The cold war was a very short episode in the history of Europe but it assumed at the time an air of permanence owing to the metaphors of Frigidity and rigor in which it was discussed. It two principal features were apparent in 1946 in the speeches by Winston Churchill at Fulton, Missouri, in February in the presence of president Harry Truman and his secretary of state James Byrnes, at Stuttgart in September. These speeches showed that the tripartite Wartime alliance was being replaced by a new pattern of two against one and that the United States, so far from turning it back on Europe. Regarded Europe as an essential American sphere of influence.
                Although president Truman had to accept virtual exclusion from central and Eastern Europe, he secured by the Truman Doctrine of March 1947 a Foothold in the Balkans and the middle East at the time when he was preparing to consolidate anti-communist and anti Russian positions in Western Europe by a combination of economic aid and military alliance embodied in the Marshall plan and the North Atlantic Treaty.
                These were the beginnings of the policy of Containment, designed to Curb Russian power and change the Russian mood but in April 1949 after the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty organization, this essentially European policy was complicated by a distant event, the out break of war in Korea in 1950, which became a drain according to political observers on the forces available for containment in Europe and converted containment from a European to a more nearly global policy.
                The world may be plunged into another bitter phase of the cold war opine by political analysts exactly 30years after Mikhail Gorbachev and president Ronald Raegan signed a break through treaty on eliminating short and medium-range nuclear missiles putting an end to the Arms race.
                With the recent missile test conducted by N.Korea since February 2017, the animosity that existed between the Western powers championed by USA and the East led by the former USSR after the end of the Second World War in 1945 may re-surface.

                North Korea Leader Kim Jong UN has fired 18 missiles since February 2017, the most recent being two long range missiles, launched within one month. It should be recalled that on the 28th of July 2017, North Korean launched Inter-continental Ballistie missiles (ICBM) that is capable of reaching some US.
                Cities like Chicago and Los Angeles. This action by North Korea has caused uproar in the US in particular and the international community in general. In reaction to North Korea action the US. Congress passed a bill that in effect ranks Russia along with Iran and North Korea as US top enemy and limit President Donald Trump’s ability to lift sanctions against Moscow. These new tougher sanctions voted against Russia, Iran and North Korea, some political pundits have characterized this latest development as the return of the cold war. With the recent development nuclear armed North Korea and the military might exhibited by Russia Political juggernaut are of the opinion that the cold war may re-escalate in the world.
                Within the framework of the present dispensation, Russia’s today GDP makes up only 1.5 percent of the world’s and it allies number exactly 10countries as per the vote on the UN resolution on the annexation of Crimea. Two of those are former soviet countries (Armenia and Belarus) and the remaining eight are Bolivia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, North Korea Cuba, Nicaragua Syria and Sudan. It should be noted that some of these countries are plagued by poverty and internal instability problems. Russia had tried to interfere with the domestic politics of some countries in central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans. She is actively sponsoring Far-right parties. But despite these financial transactions, Russia had not gained popular approval in any of these regions. In Montenegro, GRU tried to organize a coup so as to stop the country’s request to join NATO. The coup failed and infact threatened pro-NATO attitude among Montenegrins. Their parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of NATO’s membership.
                With all the missiles manoeuvers from nuclear North Korea and with Russian intransigence in Syria and in the UN, the question in the minds of political observers is, will America under the stewardship of president Donald Trump Surmount the above equation (Russia and North Korea)

NB: TARH HUMPHREY NTANTANG is currently the Regional chief of the bureau for circulation, Road safety and accident prevention at the Center Regional Delegation of Transport since 2013.  He holds a Bachelor of Art Degree in History and Maitrise in political Science as well as a master’s Degree in Political History and International Relation. He is a PhD research student at the University of Yaoundé I

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