Cavaye’s motion, DCC’s photo campaign:

President Paul Biya

Biya testing the waters for anticipated presidential election?
A deeper look at the National Assembly Speaker’s 11 November 2015 motion of support to President Paul Biya reveals that he is used by the regime to subtly test the waters for a presidential election earlier than scheduled by law. The recent picture campaigns by the Civil Cabinet of the presidency also speaks volumes
By Ojong Steven Ayukogem in Yaounde
On Wednesday, 11 November 2015, the speaker of the National Assembly Cavayé Yeguié Djibril released a motion of support for the Head of State which he alone signed on behalf of the living forces of his native Mayo Sava division. Coming on the occasion of President Paul Biya’s 33rd anniversary in power, the motion of support was meant to call on the latter to stand for the next presidential election billed in principle for October 2018. It was read several times on state radio and television CRTV.
    However, given the prevailing circumstances and the way things have been going on in the country, Cavayé’s gesture can be better understood if it is given a deeper meaning. Put differently, the significance of the motion of support is more than meets the eye.  Political pundits see in it a call for President Biya to organize an anticipated presidential election.
    The first aspect that betrays the National Assembly speaker’s intentions is the cold fact that although he urged the President to present his candidature for the coming presidential election, the date of the election is not specified in his motion of support. To observers, this is a glaring indication that Cavayé is talking about an anticipated presidential election.

    Another reason why Cavayé Yeguié Djibril’s outing is not being viewed as simple is because it is in a similar way that the late Douala V mayor Francoise Foning and the sitting minister of Labour and Social Security Grégoire Owona came out when the debate prior to the modification of the constitution aimed at cancelling the presidential term limit, was on. The two personalities mentioned above did not come out on their own volition, it is believed. It was a well-calculated scheme by the regime in power to test the waters. On that occasion, Foning and Owona argued that it would be undemocratic to limit the terms of office of a man who is still wanted by his people.
    Furthermore, the timing of Cavayé’s motion of support cannot be said to be accidental. Coming at a time when there is a serious campaign by the civil cabinet of the Presidency of the Republic to put up gigantic photos of the President with his people (the population, the opposition, etc.), it is clear that the motion of support was meant to prepare the collective mind of Cameroonians for a precipitated presidential election. This is especially so when we take into consideration the fact that the barons of the regime are keen on reinforcing the powers of the Head of State in his fight against terrorism.
    Critics have also surmised that there is every reason to believe that the House speaker was insinuating a precipitated presidential election because such a scenario would enable the “Lion Man” at Etoudi to have a clear idea of how to organize a successful Africa Cup of Nations in 2019, a thing he will certainly not like to miss being part of.
    At the geo-strategic level, two of Cameroon’s major partners at the economic and security levels, the US and France, have presidential elections in 2016 and 2017 respectively. A precipitated presidential election in Cameroon would therefore enable President Biya to consolidate his grip on power before his enemies come to power in these countries, France especially. It should be noted that former French President Nikolas Sarkozy is guuning to bounce back at the Elysee. Informed observers say president Biya is wary of an eventual come-back by Sarkozy, who has never missed an opportunity to condemn the perpetuity of African leaders in power.
    In fact, when President Biya told journalists while receiving French President Francois Hollande on 3 July 2015 in Yaounde that “The presidential election of 2018 is still far…”, critics understood it to mean “near”, given that the President has hardly ever been predictable. That is why Cavayé’s outing and the DCC’s photo displays are considered to have a deeper meaning.
    Finally, keen observers of our political scene will understand that for decades now, elections here have hardly taken place at the exact time they are due. They are usually anticipated or carried forward. Who then says the 2018 presidential election will be different? And who, in this light, does not read more meaning in Cavayé Yeguié Djibril’s motion of support?