Who Can Beat “the Sphinx of Etoudi”?

For Paul Biya, 85, the Difference is 7-Up

Paul Biya

From most indications, all appears lost for the opposition candidates, even before the campaigns begin. This is because running for a record 7th successive campaign, and being in control of all the institutions that have a stake in the successful organization of the vote, for incumbent Paul Biya, the difference is clear; the difference is 7-up

By Ojong Steven Ayukogem in Yaounde

The last days of last week have been marked by commotion at Elecam. The prospective candidates for the 7 October 2018 presidential election were submitting their candidacy files at the elections management organ. After the file of incumbent Paul Biya was submitted on Friday by the Dicab of the Presidency and the SG of the CPDM, it was Maurice Kamto that took the queue. His file was brought in by the treasurer of the MRC, Alain Fogue Tedom.

            The days that followed saw the arrival of Akere Muna of the NOW platform, Garga Harman Adji of the ADD, Adamu Ndam Njoya of UDC, Joshua Osih of SDF, Cabral Libih of UP…….. In all, 28 candidates had submitted their files as at midnight on Thursday, 19 July 2018, which was the deadline fixed for that aspect of the process. There were 52 candidates at this level, in the 2011 election.

            One can understand the effervescence that has gripped the entire nation before, during and after this period of submission of candidacy files and pre-campaign. Many candidates are already in the field doing their utmost to mobilize maximum support from potential voters.

            Maurice Kamto for example, was in the North of the country. We hear that he had a successful outing there. The popular support he enjoyed from Cameroonians in this part of the country testifies to the growing strength of his party, which appears to be shoving the SDF aside and easily taking its place as the second political force in Cameroon. There is no denying it that the MRC has the wind in its sails.

In the same regard, the president of the NOW platform, Akere Muna, was in Ngoundere in the Adamawa region. Supported by some political parties on the ground, he too succeeded to pull attention to himself during a rally he called and which we are told, attracted a huge turnout.

            For his part, Joshua Osih of the SDF has known no rest, ever since he launched his pre-electoral activities with a national tour, which took him around the country and later to the Diaspora.

            Everybody is doing his best to get their messages and programs understood by whoever cares to listen. And all the messages are full of good ideas, apart from the usual promises.

            But who among these candidates can dare the Lion man – Paul Biya? All state institutions including Elecam, Constitutional Council, the Army, CRTV, MINADT etc are for him and with him. So, who can beat him?

Illusion

            Many, for example Cabral Libih, have called for the federation of opposition forces, to form a united front through the nomination of a single candidate. But we can read from the grimace on the faces of some candidates that it is either they are that unique candidate or they run solo.

Hilaire Kamga, promoter of the Orange platform, pointed out during a press conference on Wednesday, 18 July, that: “the Orangers had taken a popular resolution and engagement to propose to Prof. Maurice Kamto and Barrister Akere Muna, to concert with the view to forming a coalition and to seek consensus over the choice of a single candidate.” But would they oblige?

            For us, the fact that every candidate submits their files separately at Elecam does not pose a problem, especially given that even days or weeks before the election, the opposition can still decide, if they so wish, to rally behind a single candidate, that is, after due consultations.  It suffices that they call on their supporters to cast their vote for the candidate that they have so consensually cho    sen.

            But when these political leaders choose to go solo and in dispersed ranks, as they appear to be doing, they only give Paul Biya a good chance and the lee-way to emerge victorious in the forthcoming election.

            Firstly, Paul Biya, also fondly called “the Sphinx of Etoudi”, will be running for the seventh time. Paul Biya therefore masters the terrain more than all his challengers. He also masters the complexities in the race more than who-so-ever.

            Besides, the electoral law favors the incumbent, who has refused to modify it despite sustained criticism. Then, Elecam, the electoral organ of the party-state, is constituted essentially of members who are former die-hards of the ruling CPDM or who have a known acquaintance with the party.

            So, in the event of an opposition candidate scoring high at the vote, it will be the score that Elecam will have attributed to that candidate. It should be undercored that even if all the political parties succeeded to have their representatives at all the polling stations, it is the results-sheets from Elecam that will be considered authentic by the constitutional council.

            And which constitutional council are we referring to here? The one whose members were picked not by chance, and which is stuffed with former ministers to whom the head of state has given a new lease of life.

            We recall how its president, Clement Atangana, a former Supreme Court Judge, jumped and danced for joy, upon learning of his appointment by the president of the republic. Clement Atangana did not mince his words when he readily thanked and hailed president Biya for ‘resurrecting’ him.

We should not forget also that only recently, one of the members of the constitutional council, was signatory to a document calling on Paul Biya to be candidate in the 2018 election. This raises questions about the impartiality and how truly objective the constitutional council can be.

            We also saw how during the ligations after the senatorial elections, all the petitions from the opposition were thrown out on grounds that they lacked either the requisite form or the evidence to back them.

            Finally, it is no news to anyone that the ministry of territorial administration, through the DOs, SDOs and traditional rulers, has always had an immeasurable influence in the electoral process. I know some people will evoke the case of Gambia where incumbent Yahya Jammeh lost an election which he organized. But Cameroon is not Gambia. And besides, did Yahya Jammeh accept to leave after losing?

            So, for the 7 October 2018 election, the opposition candidates have a choice either to run and lose, or not to run at all. I know some may have a “plan B” that is, to run and then challenge the final result and call for a popular street protests to mount pressure on Biya to step down. But will that do the trick? Recall that after the quarreled results of the 2011 election, Kah Walla’s CPP tried in vain to get the people to take to the streets. What’s more, Cameroonians would not want to go into the streets and get killed by the no-nonsense and trigger-happy BIR guys, who are known for their alertness and readiness to swing to action whenever they are called to do so. President Biya has used them with success not ones or twice.

            So, be it as it may, the 7 October presidential polls have little or no stakes for most Cameroonians. And many will not bother to go and vote, knowing that elections here are won in advance.