Reflections on 2018 & power succession:

Biya is not Methuselah, yet the opposition has gone to sleep

By Agbor John Obi, conflict management expert

President Paul Biya

Time resolves every problem. 2018 is likely to have a huge impact on the political life of Cameroon. Like in the early 1990s with its villesmortes, the Biya regime is once again facing one of its greatest challenges-Boko Haram and the Anglophone crisis. Yet, instead of the civil society and opposition parties to exploit the collective discontent in the country to their advantage, they have elected to go to sleep. And this only comforts the regime in Yaounde. But power alternation in 2018 can only happen through one of three scenarios: The Southern Cameroon struggle, the 2018 presidential election, and a constitutional heir in case of incapacity or death of Mr. Biya.

                The Southern Cameroon struggle has already achieved enormous success and significant gains in terms of achievable demands. Reason why the momentum now should be focused towards the release of the detained leaders. And this can be done through concessions, flexibility and compromises.

                Yet, schools boycott is a wrong approach because the regime uses it to its advantage at the international scene to justify its resort to the use of force.

                Also, Secession will be difficult to come by; this is because it needs not only a unified strategy but also material and financial sacrifice, apart from time. Besides, secession cannot be achieved overnight through vain rhetoric. Needless to say the Biya regime will never and can never dialogue on secession or two-state federation.

The 2018 elections will therefore be the mother of all elections. Now is the time experts in election manipulation are at work laying the foundation for the next camouflage.

                So what the opposition parties in Cameroon should do now is to bury the errors of the past; give FruNdi till December to rethink on a united front and a fresh candidate or ignore SDF to its greedy faith.

                The opposition should start sensitization now, not on the eve of election. The best period to fraud in any election is during voter registration and not on voting day. So the opposition should call and insist on international assistance and observers.

                Only in such situation can the international community intervene in case of no respect of procedure. It is difficult to rig elections when there is massive participation and land slide victories.

                The Far North is the game changer of elections in Cameroon. The electoral population of Maroua alone is like SW, NW and West region combined. That’s why the regime cannot but maintain the theCavayes, Tchiromas, DakoleDisalas, Bello Boubas in government.

The opposition always ignores the North instead of forming alliances with influential personalities from these regions. This is time to go closer to the North and bring about the needed change.

                It is better for the world to know that Biyafrauded the vote than that the opposition boycotted. This is because boycotting without a better alternative is useless. The opposition should learn from the past. The SDF boycott of 1992 remains a nightmare to Cameroonians and FruNdi. Biya’s strategists use the anger, emotions and lack of strategy of the opposition to their success.

                So, those praying for the death of Mr. Biya in office are on the wrong footing because it will complicate the situation with a constitutional heir. The same regime cohorts will need time for fresh election and can change the schedule by law depending on the political environment. A dead Biya will answer no crime committed except before God.