Anglophone Crisis:

CPDM and SDF in for Senatorial showdown in SW

Despite having a sweeping majority of councilors, the CPDM cannot hope for an easy ride over the opposition SDF in the SW region. The fallout of the Anglophone crisis might be determinant in the outcome of the final vote count

By Ojong Steven Ayukogem in Yaounde

As campaigns kicked-off on Saturday 10 March, ahead of the senatorial election billed for 25 March 2018, indications are that the ruling CPDM party cannot immediately lay claim to an easy victory in the NW and SW until the final vote count is published by the constitutional council. And this is so despite the fact the Paul Biya’s party has a sweeping majority of the electorate in the SW region, and a slight majority in the NW region, which until recent years was understood to be the bastion of Fru Ndi’s party, the opposition SDF.

            It should be recalled that during the senatorial election in 2013, the CPDM edged the SDF by a slim margin of five votes to carry the day. But it must be understood that the today the context has changed; and the present socio-political landscape in the NW will be determinant in the election.

            Though the CPDM has the majority of councilors in the NW region (municipal councilors are, until the putting in place of the regional councils, the exclusive electorate for senatorial elections), there is no guarantee that all CPDM municipal councilors will respect party discipline and vote their party’s list on 25 March. It is understood that some CPDM councilors who are supporters of, or who have been negatively affected by the Anglophone uprising may decide to sanction their party by voting the SDF.

            Needless to mention that since the start of the crisis in October 2016 and until the present escalation of violence characterized by serial killing of both civilians and military, maiming, arson, collective military reprisals, hostage taking, mass exiles of civilian populations etc etc, many have heaped the blame, either rightly or wrongly, on the government for what they consider as its poor handling of the crisis.

            Even though the government has missed no opportunity to explain to the populations that its position and methods are purely and strictly republican, many still believe that the excessive use of force has instead helped to add fuel in the fire rather than calm it.

            For its part, the SDF has also used every available occasion to castigate the government for what it considers as the government’s poor management of the crisis.

            It is understood that this posturing by the SDF no matter how sincere, cannot be without political undertones. It is with the aim to win the hearts of the affected populations who will see the party as sympathizing with them.

            That is perhaps why political pundits have predicted that the SDF will hinge its campaign rhetoric only on the CPDM’s poor handling of the Anglophone crisis, and maybe also on what many say is the paltry development impact that the CPDM senators have made in the North West during the last five years.

            Yet, if the situation in the NW is as painted above, it is even trickier in the SW where the Anglophone separatists have literally taken over control of some divisions and subdivisions. Granted that the CPDM controls a wide majority of councils in the SW, it must be understood that the fallout of the Anglophone crisis will be determinant as to which party some councilors will give their votes.

            If this reasoning holds water then only Fako Division can be said to be safe for the CPDM for, it is only here that life can be said to be certain and almost normal. But in other CPDM controlled council areas like Mbonge and Konye in Meme division; the whole of Ndian division; Eyumojock, Akwaya and Mamfe Central sub-divisions in Manyu; the whole of Lebialem and Kupe Muanenguba divisions in the SW, the CPDM candidates will need to work extra hard to convince the very bitter, frustrated and disappointed councilors not to vote the SDF as way of sanctioning their party for the troubles and sufferings visited on their communities due to the ongoing Anglophone crisis. It should be mentioned that if the voting in the senatorial were to take place at sub-divisional level then it is left to be known if some subdivisions in the SW would be able to host the election.

            It is perhaps with these in mind that some political pundits have predicted a tough battle between the CPDM and the SDF in the SW. The pundits say the natural SDF votes from the four SDF-run councils of Tiko, Kumba I, Kumba II and Kumba III, and the votes of ‘angry, disappointed and frustrated’ CPDM councils in restive divisions and subdivisions might make it such that the CPDM may end up sharing the senatorial seats with the SDF in the SW. But all of this is mere speculation because in elections there are always last minute surprises. So let’s wait and see.